Interactivty limited
To be able to view this page correctly, we advise you to use a more modern browser (Chrome, Firefox, Safari, IE 9 and up).

PBL Climate Pledge INDC tool

By 15 December 2015, 188 Parties (including the European Union) had submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in preparation for the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015. These countries represented about 97% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. The main findings are:

  • INDCs are insufficient to put the world directly on a cost-effective pathway to secure a likely chance to stay below 2°C; however, if implemented, they will deliver a reduction of 9 and 11 GtCO2e by 2030, compared to the business as usual scenario, for the full implementation of all unconditional and conditional INDCs, respectively.
  • Implementation of the unconditional INDCs would still leave an emission gap of 14 GtCO2e relative to the global emission level needed for keeping the temperature increase below 2 °C with a likely chance. Implementation of the conditional INDCs would further reduce this gap to 12 GtCO2e.

Global

Share of global emissions in 2010: 100%

Source: PBL, 2015

The figure shows the impact of aggregated reductions by the full implementation of all unconditional and conditional INDCs submitted to date, compared to the business-as-usual and current policies scenario. The emission gap is based on the difference between the emission levels for 2025 and 2030 that would be consistent with achieving the climate target of below 2 °C (UNEP, 2014) and the levels projected to result from the INDCs.

About the tool

The PBL Climate Pledge INDC tool shows the impact of the emission reduction proposals (pledges or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) and policies, per country, on greenhouse gas emission projections for 2020 and 2030. This tool analyses the mitigation components of the INDCs of 104 of the 188 Parties with an INDC (representing about 90% of emissions in 2012). More specifically, the tool shows the effect of:

  • Pledges : national and global greenhouse gas emission projections for 2020, assuming that countries’ pledges will be fully achieved;
  • Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) : national and global greenhouse gas emission projections for 2030, assuming that countries’ INDCs will be fully achieved;
  • Measures : the impact of the most effective national climate and energy policies, such as carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs, or standards on emission levels of 2020 and 2030, for 19 major emitting countries and regions.

The projections show total emissions per country, emissions per capita, and emissions per unit of income. The different indicators provide countries with information on how their contribution compares to those of others (Review).

Pre-2020 Pledge map: Country classification according to type of pledge

Under the 2010 Cancún Agreements, 42 developed countries submitted economy-wide emission reduction proposals for 2020. Furthermore, at the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC in Doha, in 2012, a group of developed countries made reduction commitments for the 2013–2020 period, under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, 55 developing countries submitted so-called nationally appropriate mitigation measures to the Climate Convention. Of these countries, 16 have framed their measures in terms of quantified economy-wide reduction targets. The countries with either reduction proposals, reduction commitments, or economy-wide nationally appropriate mitigation measures, together, accounted for 75% of global emissions in 2010.

The pledges and measures taken by countries under the Cancún Agreements and the Kyoto Protocol, as shown on the map, have been grouped into four categories:

  1. Quantified commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. A group of developed countries have made reduction commitments for the period between 2013 and 2020 under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
  2. Pledges formulated in terms of economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions under the Cancún Agreements. Another group of developed countries have proposed greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2020, defined in terms of reductions against a certain base year.
  3. Submitted measures under the Cancún Agreements. Many developing countries have submitted certain measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as the implementation of renewable energy targets.
  4. No pledge or measures. All countries that have not submitted commitments, pledges, or measures to the Climate Convention.

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

A new international climate agreement is adopted during the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP 21) in Paris. In advance of the Paris meeting, developed and developing countries submitted their national post-2020 climate action plans and commitments as part of their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). These commitments are the foundation of the 2015 climate agreement.

By 15 December 2015, 188 Parties had submitted their INDCs, representing about 97% of global 2012 emissions, as summarised on the map. For this tool, we assess the mitigation components of the INDCs of 102 of these Parties (representing approximately 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012), including the EU28. Submissions can be viewed on the UNFCC website.

Methodology

The impact of the most effective current and planned policies on greenhouse gas emissions up to 2030 was projected by Ecofys & NewClimate Institute, IIASA and PBL (Den Elzen et al., 2015; Roelfsema et al., 2013, 2014). The selection of current and planned policies was based on literature research and expert knowledge. Ecofys & NewClimate Institute based their calculations on existing scenarios from national and international studies (e.g. IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2014), as well as their own calculations of the impact of individual policies in different sub-sectors. PBL based their calculations on the FAIR policy and TIMER energy models, and IIASA’s were based on their global land-use model GLOBIOM and global forest model G4M.

Quantification of the pledges was performed using the FAIR model (Den Elzen et al., 2013; Hof et al., 2013). As policies are subject to change, the web tool uses the current state of affairs. Quantification of the INDCs is described in detail in Admiraal et al. (2015).

Data

The projections were harmonised to historical 1990–2010 emissions from the UNFCCC National Inventory Submissions for Annex I countries, the EDGAR database (JRC/PBL, 2012) and National Communications for non-Annex I countries. The emission projections of most countries include all greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use, land-use change and forestry. Only for countries with a substantial share in land use emissions, these emissions are included, based on FAOSTAT numbers and National Communications for historical 1990–2010 emissions. It should be noted that the figures shown for non-Annex I countries do not include the historical emissions from National Communications.

The emission projections resulting from the INDCs can be found in Admiraal et al. (2015

If you plan to use these data in official publications, please contact us.

Acknowledgements

This project is funded by the European Union and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. This work builds on the methodology used in two recent projects by PBL, Ecofys, and IIASA for the European Commission, in which current trends in emissions, including the effect of implemented and planned climate policies for a number of countries, were analysed.

Key publications

References

  • Den Elzen MGJ, Hof AF and Roelfsema M. (2013). Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020. Energy Policy 56, pp. 633–643.
  • Den Elzen MGJ et al. (2015). Enhanced policy scenarios for major emitting countries; Analysis of current and planned climate policies, and selected enhanced mitigation measures. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven.
  • Grassi G, Den Elzen MGJ, Hof AF, Pilli R and Federici S. (2012). The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges. Climatic Change, 1–9.
  • Hof AF, Den Elzen MGJ and Roelfsema M. (2013). The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. Environmental Science and Policy 33, pp. 308–319.
  • JRC/PBL (2012) EDGAR version 4.2 FT2010. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission/PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
  • Roelfsema M, Den Elzen MGJ, Höhne N, Hof AF, Braun N, Fekete H, Brandsma R, Larkin J and Böttcher H. (2014). Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies, Energy Policy 67, pp. 781–796.
  • UNEP (2014). The Emissions Gap Report 2014. A UNEP Synthesis Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).